2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 34

1. FC Magdeburg–Fortuna Düsseldorf

4–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 May 2025 at 13:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Avnet Arena, Magdeburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 40%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Fortuna DüsseldorfMatthias Zimmermann (assist: T. Oberdorf)
47'1. FC MagdeburgJean Hugonet (assist: B. Atik)
60'1. FC MagdeburgX. Amaechi (assist: L. Musonda)
73'1. FC MagdeburgA. Nollenberger (assist: B. Atik)
81'Fortuna DüsseldorfÍ. Bergmann Jóhannesson (assist: Jamil Siebert)
90+2'1. FC Magdeburg

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		Fortuna Düsseldorf
14	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
525	Passes	391
475	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.48. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 14 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 9; on target 7 and 4.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

P. Ittrich→

4.18

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.4%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.73 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 76.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 909 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win40.4%

Draw23.8%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win35.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time39.8%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 909 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 10Actual: 6
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 1
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.69

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.48

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.0%2–19.0%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.