2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

SSV Jahn Regensburg–Karlsruher SC

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (assist: B. Conté)
17'SSV Jahn RegensburgR. Bulić (assist: T. Handwerker)
31'Karlsruher SCDženis Burnić (assist: B. Conté)
65'SSV Jahn RegensburgE. Hottmann (assist: T. Handwerker)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Jahn Regensburg		Karlsruher SC
20	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	6
11	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
338	Passes	482
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.00 · Karlsruher SC 1.81. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots SSV Jahn Regensburg 20 · Karlsruher SC 19; on target 3 and 6.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

E. Weisbach→

4.64

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

14 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “Karlsruher SC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.16 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.64 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (X2 — draw or Karlsruher SC win).
These values were computed from 906 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win25.6%

Draw26.3%

Karlsruher SC to win48.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time17.2%

Level at half-time39.3%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time43.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead or level56.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead82.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 906 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 12Actual: 13
Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 5
Karlsruher SC: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score1.00

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.81

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–210.5%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.