2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

SC Paderborn 07–1. FC Magdeburg

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'1. FC MagdeburgM. Kaars (penalty)
41'SC Paderborn 07C. Brackelmann (assist: S. Michel)
61'SC Paderborn 07F. Gotze (assist: M. Mehlem)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		1. FC Magdeburg
21	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
14	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
466	Passes	366
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 1.89 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.24. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 21 · 1. FC Magdeburg 9; on target 4 and 3.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Petersen→

4.45

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.06 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.37 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 902 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win53.4%

Draw22.8%

1. FC Magdeburg to win23.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	6

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time39.1%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 902 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 11Actual: 9
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 6
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.89

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.24

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.4%1–110.2%2–27.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.