2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Fortuna Düsseldorf–FC Schalke 04

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena, Düsseldorf

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Fortuna DüsseldorfD. Kownacki (assist: S. Appelkamp)
77'Fortuna DüsseldorfMyron Van Brederode (assist: D. Schmidt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		FC Schalke 04
12	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
443	Passes	426
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.05 · FC Schalke 04 1.31. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 12 · FC Schalke 04 8; on target 8 and 2.

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.17

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “FC Schalke 04 to win” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.01 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.37 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 902 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win52.0%

Draw23.3%

FC Schalke 04 to win24.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time46.3%

Level at half-time37.1%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time16.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level83.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.9%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead53.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 902 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 9Actual: 6
FC Schalke 04: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 5
FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score2.05

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.31

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.5%2–110.4%2–27.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.