2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

Preußen Münster–Hertha BSC

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 9 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Preußen-Stadion, Münster

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Preußen MünsterJ. Hendrix (assist: E. Amenyido)
70'Preußen MünsterJ. Hendrix (assist: M. Lorenz)
77'Hertha BSCL. Gechter · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Hertha BSC
12	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
311	Passes	546
243	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.31 · Hertha BSC 1.37. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Preußen Münster 12 · Hertha BSC 8; on target 3 and 1.
Hertha BSC kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

P. Ittrich→

4.15

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.5%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Preußen Münster, 1.60 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win35.8%

Draw25.7%

Hertha BSC to win38.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Preußen Münster lead at half-time34.9%

Level at half-time41.4%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time23.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level76.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead65.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 11Actual: 16
Hertha BSC: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 2
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.31

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.37

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–29.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.