2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 33

1. FC Nürnberg–1. FC Köln

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 9 May 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nürnberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'1. FC NürnbergJ. Antiste
67'1. FC KölnF. Kainz (assist: T. Lemperle)
90'1. FC KölnF. Kainz (assist: T. Lemperle)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		1. FC Köln
5	Shots	23
1	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	13
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
413	Passes	422
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.27 · 1. FC Köln 1.70. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 5 · 1. FC Köln 23; on target 1 and 4.

Referee

R. Hartmann→

3.54

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 2.28 for 1. FC Köln.
The highest double chance value is 86.2% (X2 — draw or 1. FC Köln win).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win13.8%

Draw19.8%

1. FC Köln to win66.4%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw33.6%

12 — any result other than a draw80.2%

X2 — draw or 1. FC Köln win86.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time40.9%

1. FC Köln lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Köln ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 11
1. FC Köln: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4
1. FC Köln: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 59.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.27

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.70

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.8%0–29.9%1–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 900 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.