2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

1. FC Köln–SSV Jahn Regensburg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Köln

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 14%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

59'1. FC KölnT. Lemperle (assist: L. Waldschmidt)
75'SSV Jahn RegensburgN. Ganaus

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		SSV Jahn Regensburg
22	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
560	Passes	276
474	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 2.24 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.64. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Köln 22 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 5; on target 5 and 4.
1. FC Köln kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

N. Winter→

4.88

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 79.5%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.69 for 1. FC Köln, 0.74 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The highest double chance value is 93.4% (1X — 1. FC Köln win or draw).
These values were computed from 896 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win79.5%

Draw13.9%

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win6.6%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Köln lead at half-time60.8%

Level at half-time33.0%

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time6.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level93.9%

12 — not level at half-time67.0%

X2 — level or SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead39.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 896 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 12Actual: 9
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 6Actual: 8
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score2.24

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score0.64

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.64 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.0%3–010.9%2–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.