2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 32

SSV Ulm 1846–Hannover 96

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Donaustadion, Ulm

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Hannover 96T. Gaal (own goal)
51'SSV Ulm 1846S. Telalovic (assist: F. Higl)
67'Hannover 96J. Knight (assist: P. Neumann)
68'Hannover 96B. Tomiak · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Ulm 1846		Hannover 96
21	Shots	9
5	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
55%	Possession	45%
369	Passes	319
279	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 · Hannover 96 1.30. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots SSV Ulm 1846 21 · Hannover 96 9; on target 5 and 2.
SSV Ulm 1846 kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

T. Gerach→

4.14

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “SSV Ulm 1846 to win” at 35.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for SSV Ulm 1846, 1.41 for Hannover 96.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 893 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Ulm 1846 to win35.7%

Draw27.4%

Hannover 96 to win36.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

SSV Ulm 1846 lead at half-time36.1%

Level at half-time45.9%

Hannover 96 lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Ulm 1846 ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.1%

X2 — level or Hannover 96 ahead63.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 893 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 11Actual: 17
Hannover 96: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 4Actual: 7
Hannover 96: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Ulm 1846 score1.16

Attack: SSV Ulm 1846 score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.30

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Ulm 1846's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.2%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.