2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

1. FC Kaiserslautern–FC Schalke 04

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'1. FC KaiserslauternD. Yokota
61'FC Schalke 04M. Sylla
77'1. FC KaiserslauternR. Ache (assist: M. Ritter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		FC Schalke 04
19	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	4
13	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	7
5	Corners	8
5	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
374	Passes	350
273	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.99 · FC Schalke 04 1.38. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 19 · FC Schalke 04 11; on target 9 and 4.

Referee

D. Schlager→

4.86

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “FC Schalke 04 to win” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.95 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.33 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 888 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win51.7%

Draw23.7%

FC Schalke 04 to win24.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time44.4%

Level at half-time37.4%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time18.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level81.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead55.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 888 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 10Actual: 9
FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 5
FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.99

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.38

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–110.5%2–07.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.