2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Hamburger SV–Karlsruher SC

1–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Karlsruher SCLouey Ben Farhat (assist: B. Conté)
42'Hamburger SVDavie Selke (penalty)
45+3'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		Karlsruher SC
13	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
545	Passes	404
439	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 2.23 · Karlsruher SC 1.12. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Hamburger SV 13 · Karlsruher SC 11; on target 5 and 4.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

F. Lechner→

4.19

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.8%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.40 for Hamburger SV, 1.22 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 83.4% (1X — Hamburger SV win or draw).
These values were computed from 888 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win63.8%

Draw19.7%

Karlsruher SC to win16.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Hamburger SV lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time34.8%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time13.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level86.9%

12 — not level at half-time65.2%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 888 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 15
Karlsruher SC: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 5Actual: 4
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score2.23

Attack: Hamburger SV score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.12

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.3%1–18.6%3–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.