2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

Hannover 96–1. FC Köln

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 27 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'1. FC KölnL. Paqarada · red card
57'Hannover 96L. Gindorf (assist: B. Ezeh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		1. FC Köln
17	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
53%	Possession	47%
409	Passes	371
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.34 · 1. FC Köln 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Hannover 96 17 · 1. FC Köln 10; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

T. Gansloweit→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “Hannover 96 to win” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Hannover 96, 1.81 for 1. FC Köln.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 888 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win26.5%

Draw24.8%

1. FC Köln to win48.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hannover 96 lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time43.9%

1. FC Köln lead at half-time31.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level68.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Köln ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 888 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 11Actual: 16
1. FC Köln: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 5
1. FC Köln: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.34

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.39

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–210.4%2–17.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.