2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

SC Paderborn 07–SV Elversberg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'SC Paderborn 07F. Bilbija (assist: R. Obermair)
90+4'SV ElversbergF. Le Joncour (assist: F. Asllani)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		SV Elversberg
8	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
403	Passes	526
330	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 1.71 · SV Elversberg 1.25. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 8 · SV Elversberg 15; on target 2 and 4.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

R. Braun→

4.75

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.5%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “SV Elversberg to win” at 30.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.39 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 884 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win43.5%

Draw25.7%

SV Elversberg to win30.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time21.8%

Level at half-time41.6%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time36.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level63.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead78.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 884 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 11Actual: 12
SV Elversberg: at least 9Actual: 13

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 6Actual: 2
SV Elversberg: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.71

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.25

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.0%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.