2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

SSV Jahn Regensburg–Eintracht Braunschweig

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 April 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'SSV Jahn RegensburgR. Ziegele
6'Eintracht BraunschweigJ. Nikolaou

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Jahn Regensburg		Eintracht Braunschweig
7	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	1
5	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
319	Passes	404
201	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.10 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.48. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots SSV Jahn Regensburg 7 · Eintracht Braunschweig 8; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

L. Erbst→

5.36

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “Eintracht Braunschweig to win”. Second comes “SSV Jahn Regensburg to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.37 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 884 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win33.8%

Draw28.1%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win38.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time25.0%

Level at half-time43.3%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.7%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead75.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 884 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 12Actual: 12
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 7
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score1.10

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (44% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.48

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.2%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.