2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 31

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–SSV Ulm 1846

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 25 April 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'SSV Ulm 1846M. Krattenmacher (assist: Dennis Dressel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		SSV Ulm 1846
15	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
367	Passes	332
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 · SSV Ulm 1846 1.13. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 15 · SSV Ulm 1846 14; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

E. Weisbach→

4.69

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.2%: “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.11 for SSV Ulm 1846.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth win or draw).
These values were computed from 882 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win45.2%

Draw27.8%

SSV Ulm 1846 to win27.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time20.3%

Level at half-time41.7%

SSV Ulm 1846 lead at half-time38.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level62.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or SSV Ulm 1846 ahead79.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 882 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 11Actual: 11
SSV Ulm 1846: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 5Actual: 7
SSV Ulm 1846: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.44

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Ulm 1846's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Ulm 1846 score1.13

Attack: SSV Ulm 1846 score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.2%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.