2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

SSV Ulm 1846–Hertha BSC

2–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Donaustadion, Ulm

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'SSV Ulm 1846A. Keller (assist: M. Krattenmacher)
46'Hertha BSCF. Reese (assist: J. Þorsteinsson)
50'Hertha BSCF. Reese (assist: L. Gechter)
56'SSV Ulm 1846Dennis Dressel
84'Hertha BSCF. Niederlechner (assist: M. Cuisance)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Ulm 1846		Hertha BSC
10	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
388	Passes	368
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Ulm 1846 1.23 · Hertha BSC 1.39. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots SSV Ulm 1846 10 · Hertha BSC 13; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.17

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “SSV Ulm 1846 to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for SSV Ulm 1846, 1.49 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 877 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Ulm 1846 to win29.0%

Draw27.6%

Hertha BSC to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SSV Ulm 1846 lead at half-time42.3%

Level at half-time41.5%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Ulm 1846 ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.5%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead57.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 877 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 9Actual: 16
Hertha BSC: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 4Actual: 10
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Ulm 1846 score1.23

Attack: SSV Ulm 1846 score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.39

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Ulm 1846's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.9%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.