2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

1. FC Köln–Preußen Münster

3–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Köln

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'1. FC KölnT. Lemperle (assist: J. Thielmann)
39'Preußen MünsterT. Hubers (own goal)
45+1'1. FC KölnL. Waldschmidt (penalty)
56'1. FC KölnD. Downs (assist: L. Waldschmidt)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		Preußen Münster
19	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	4
15	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	12
3	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
398	Passes	292
341	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 1.67 · Preußen Münster 0.94. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1. FC Köln 19 · Preußen Münster 9; on target 7 and 4.
1. FC Köln kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

T. Bauer→

4.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.8%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.29 for 1. FC Köln, 1.00 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 86.4% (1X — 1. FC Köln win or draw).
These values were computed from 877 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win66.8%

Draw19.6%

Preußen Münster to win13.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

1. FC Köln lead at half-time42.7%

Level at half-time42.0%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time15.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level84.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead57.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 877 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 11Actual: 15
Preußen Münster: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 6Actual: 5
Preußen Münster: at least 3Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score1.67

Attack: 1. FC Köln score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score0.94

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%2–09.9%1–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.