2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

1. FC Magdeburg–SSV Jahn Regensburg

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 20 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Avnet Arena, Magdeburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'1. FC MagdeburgM. Kaars (assist: Livan Burcu)
51'1. FC MagdeburgA. El-Zein (assist: A. Nollenberger)
72'1. FC MagdeburgP. Hercher

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		SSV Jahn Regensburg
12	Shots	15
6	Shots on target	5
7	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	4
70%	Possession	30%
501	Passes	201
423	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.24 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.75. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 12 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 15; on target 6 and 5.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

D. Aytekin→

3.45

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.9%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.32 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 0.94 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The highest double chance value is 87.8% (1X — 1. FC Magdeburg win or draw).
These values were computed from 877 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win68.9%

Draw18.9%

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win12.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time52.1%

Level at half-time36.2%

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.8%

X2 — level or SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead47.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 877 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 11
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 6Actual: 5
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score2.24

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score0.75

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.7%2–010.5%1–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.