2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 30

FC Schalke 04–Hamburger SV

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 19 April 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman · red card
15'FC Schalke 04R. Schallenberg (assist: T. Mohr)
41'Hamburger SVE. Sahiti (assist: Jean-Luc Dompé)
43'Hamburger SVE. Sahiti (assist: R. Königsdörffer)
81'FC Schalke 04M. Sylla (assist: A. Gantenbein)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Hamburger SV
12	Shots	26
3	Shots on target	12
8	Shots inside the box	19
10	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
23%	Possession	77%
202	Passes	683
119	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.42 · Hamburger SV 1.92. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots FC Schalke 04 12 · Hamburger SV 26; on target 3 and 12.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (77%).

Referee

H. Osmers→

4.33

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.3%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “FC Schalke 04 to win” at 32.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for FC Schalke 04, 1.81 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 876 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win32.2%

Draw24.5%

Hamburger SV to win43.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time18.7%

Level at half-time36.9%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time44.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level55.6%

12 — not level at half-time63.1%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead81.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 876 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 9Actual: 8
Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 4
Hamburger SV: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.42

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.92

Attack: Hamburger SV score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–29.7%2–18.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.