2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

SSV Jahn Regensburg–FC Schalke 04

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 13 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'SSV Jahn RegensburgChristian Kühlwetter
90+3'SSV Jahn RegensburgD. Galjen

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Jahn Regensburg		FC Schalke 04
10	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	8
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	8
6	Offsides	3
29%	Possession	71%
203	Passes	510
113	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.01 · FC Schalke 04 1.91. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots SSV Jahn Regensburg 10 · FC Schalke 04 12; on target 6 and 1.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

W. Haslberger→

5.14

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.12 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.77 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 77.4% (X2 — draw or FC Schalke 04 win).
These values were computed from 870 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win22.6%

Draw25.1%

FC Schalke 04 to win52.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time19.8%

Level at half-time39.7%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time40.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead or level59.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead80.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 870 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 12Actual: 12
FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 4
FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score1.01

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.01 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.91

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 31% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–210.8%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.