2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 29

Hannover 96–SV Elversberg

1–3

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 12 April 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Hannover 96P. Neumann
55'SV ElversbergF. Asllani (assist: Elias Baum)
78'SV ElversbergF. Asllani (assist: T. Zimmerschied)
90+8'SV ElversbergF. Asllani (assist: M. Neubauer)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		SV Elversberg
11	Shots	22
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	14
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	5
4	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
345	Passes	448
263	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.54 · SV Elversberg 1.15. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Hannover 96 11 · SV Elversberg 22; on target 3 and 5.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

E. Weisbach→

4.75

yellows per match

0.08

reds per match

matches of data

12 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.1%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “SV Elversberg to win” at 34.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.49 for Hannover 96, 1.38 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 866 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win39.1%

Draw26.9%

SV Elversberg to win34.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hannover 96 lead at half-time22.7%

Level at half-time43.6%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead77.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 866 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 12Actual: 9
SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 5
SV Elversberg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.54

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.15

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.5%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.