2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

SV Elversberg–SSV Jahn Regensburg

6–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'SV ElversbergT. Zimmerschied (assist: L. Petkov)
36'SV ElversbergC. Sickinger (penalty)
43'SV ElversbergF. Asllani (assist: T. Zimmerschied)
57'SV ElversbergS. Şahin (assist: L. Petkov)
65'SV ElversbergR. Fellhauer (assist: M. Feil)
87'SV ElversbergF. Asllani

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		SSV Jahn Regensburg
14	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
549	Passes	272
463	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 1.99 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.75. On the pitch: 6-0.
Shots SV Elversberg 14 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 11; on target 7 and 4.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

R. Hempel→

4.84

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.9%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for SV Elversberg, 0.76 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The highest double chance value is 89.9% (1X — SV Elversberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win70.9%

Draw18.9%

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win10.1%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

SV Elversberg lead at half-time59.7%

Level at half-time33.9%

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time6.4%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level93.6%

12 — not level at half-time66.1%

X2 — level or SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead40.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 7
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 13Actual: 22

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 6
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.99

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score0.75

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (45% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.9%1–010.6%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.