2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

FC Schalke 04–SSV Ulm 1846

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 April 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'SSV Ulm 1846F. Higl (assist: O. Batista Meier)
59'FC Schalke 04Paul Seguin (assist: K. Karaman)
86'FC Schalke 04A. Gantenbein · red card
88'FC Schalke 04M. Kamiński (assist: Paul Seguin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		SSV Ulm 1846
17	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
489	Passes	364
406	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.62 · SSV Ulm 1846 1.18. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Schalke 04 17 · SSV Ulm 1846 13; on target 4 and 5.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

L. Benen→

4.60

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for FC Schalke 04, 1.09 for SSV Ulm 1846.
The highest double chance value is 76.9% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win51.0%

Draw25.9%

SSV Ulm 1846 to win23.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time24.4%

Level at half-time42.1%

SSV Ulm 1846 lead at half-time33.5%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level66.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or SSV Ulm 1846 ahead75.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 15
SSV Ulm 1846: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 4
SSV Ulm 1846: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.62

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Ulm 1846's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Ulm 1846 score1.18

Attack: SSV Ulm 1846 score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.