2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 28

1. FC Nürnberg–Hamburger SV

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 April 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nürnberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'Hamburger SVJean-Luc Dompé
16'1. FC NürnbergJ. Antiste · red card
37'Hamburger SVJean-Luc Dompé (assist: L. Reis)
84'Hamburger SVR. Glatzel (assist: Jean-Luc Dompé)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Hamburger SV
9	Shots	24
3	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	21
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
392	Passes	591
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 · Hamburger SV 1.79. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 9 · Hamburger SV 24; on target 3 and 8.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

T. Gerach→

4.15

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.5%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 23.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.95 for Hamburger SV.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 857 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win23.8%

Draw23.7%

Hamburger SV to win52.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time21.0%

Level at half-time38.0%

Hamburger SV lead at half-time41.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level59.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or Hamburger SV ahead79.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 857 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 9Actual: 5
Hamburger SV: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 7
Hamburger SV: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.37

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hamburger SV score1.79

Attack: Hamburger SV score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–210.6%0–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.