2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

SSV Jahn Regensburg–1. FC Nürnberg

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 March 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'1. FC NürnbergJ. Antiste (assist: J. Castrop)
47'SSV Jahn RegensburgF. Flick (own goal)
55'SSV Jahn RegensburgN. Ganaus (assist: E. Hottmann)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Jahn Regensburg		1. FC Nürnberg
8	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
291	Passes	545
213	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.99 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.76. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SSV Jahn Regensburg 8 · 1. FC Nürnberg 13; on target 3 and 4.
1. FC Nürnberg kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

T. Gansloweit→

5.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.9%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.55 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (X2 — draw or 1. FC Nürnberg win).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win25.9%

Draw27.2%

1. FC Nürnberg to win46.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

21	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time40.6%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time37.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead or level62.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 852 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 13Actual: 21
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 3
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score0.99

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (46% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.76

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.3%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.