2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 27

SSV Ulm 1846–SV Darmstadt 98

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Donaustadion, Ulm

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

50'SSV Ulm 1846L. Röser (assist: B. Allgeier)
57'SSV Ulm 1846O. Batista Meier (assist: T. Gaal)
68'SV Darmstadt 98C. Riedel (assist: G. Bueno)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Ulm 1846		SV Darmstadt 98
12	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
331	Passes	351
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Ulm 1846 1.28 · SV Darmstadt 98 1.46. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SSV Ulm 1846 12 · SV Darmstadt 98 19; on target 4 and 7.

Referee

R. Kampka→

4.87

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.0%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “SSV Ulm 1846 to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for SSV Ulm 1846, 1.46 for SV Darmstadt 98.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Ulm 1846 to win30.2%

Draw27.8%

SV Darmstadt 98 to win42.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SSV Ulm 1846 lead at half-time37.0%

Level at half-time42.2%

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Ulm 1846 ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or SV Darmstadt 98 ahead63.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 11Actual: 13
SV Darmstadt 98: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

SSV Ulm 1846: at least 4Actual: 5
SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Ulm 1846 score1.28

Attack: SSV Ulm 1846 score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.46

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: SSV Ulm 1846's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.8%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.