2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

SC Paderborn 07–1. FC Kaiserslautern

5–3

HT 3–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'SC Paderborn 07A. Zehnter (assist: F. Bilbija)
8'SC Paderborn 07R. Obermair (penalty)
15'SC Paderborn 07F. Bilbija (assist: A. Zehnter)
45+1'1. FC KaiserslauternD. Hanslik (penalty)
45+8'1. FC KaiserslauternR. Ache
61'1. FC KaiserslauternR. Ache

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		1. FC Kaiserslautern
12	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
45%	Possession	55%
397	Passes	479
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 1.85 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.23. On the pitch: 5-3.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 12 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 14; on target 7 and 5.
1. FC Kaiserslautern kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

W. Haslberger→

5.14

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.1%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.11 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 80.4% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 839 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win57.1%

Draw23.3%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win19.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–2

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time26.4%

Level at half-time43.7%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time29.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level70.1%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead73.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 839 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 16
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 6Actual: 4
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.85

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.23

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–111.0%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.