2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 26

FC Schalke 04–Hannover 96

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 14 March 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

27'FC Schalke 04C. Antwi-Adjei
87'Hannover 96J. Rochelt
88'Hannover 96H. Nielsen (assist: E. Leopold)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Hannover 96
10	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
434	Passes	337
347	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.48 · Hannover 96 1.47. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FC Schalke 04 10 · Hannover 96 12; on target 4 and 4.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

R. Hempel→

4.83

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “Hannover 96 to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for FC Schalke 04, 1.29 for Hannover 96.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 837 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win42.7%

Draw26.9%

Hannover 96 to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time40.7%

Hannover 96 lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Hannover 96 ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 837 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 10Actual: 16
Hannover 96: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 5
Hannover 96: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.48

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.47

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.9%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.