2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

SSV Jahn Regensburg–SC Paderborn 07

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 March 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Jahn Regensburg		SC Paderborn 07
5	Shots	13
0	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	10
2	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
256	Passes	387
173	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.89 · SC Paderborn 07 1.98. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots SSV Jahn Regensburg 5 · SC Paderborn 07 13; on target 0 and 3.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

L. Benen→

4.56

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.1%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.92 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.80 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 82.5% (X2 — draw or SC Paderborn 07 win).
These values were computed from 834 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win17.5%

Draw24.4%

SC Paderborn 07 to win58.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time24.3%

Level at half-time43.6%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time32.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead or level67.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.4%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead75.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 834 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 11Actual: 19
SC Paderborn 07: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 3
SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score0.89

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (41% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.98

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%0–111.0%1–210.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.