2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 25

Hamburger SV–Fortuna Düsseldorf

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'Hamburger SVM. Muheim
18'Fortuna DüsseldorfD. Kownacki (assist: M. Kwarteng)
40'Hamburger SVDavie Selke (assist: Jean-Luc Dompé)
66'Hamburger SVAdam Karabec (assist: E. Sahiti)
90+4'Hamburger SVOtto Emerson Stange (assist: S. Hefti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		Fortuna Düsseldorf
18	Shots	9
9	Shots on target	1
12	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
638	Passes	380
585	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 2.05 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Hamburger SV 18 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 9; on target 9 and 1.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

F. Exner→

4.47

yellows per match

0.28

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.2%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.98 for Hamburger SV, 1.17 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 79.4% (1X — Hamburger SV win or draw).
These values were computed from 833 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win56.2%

Draw23.2%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win20.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Hamburger SV lead at half-time46.5%

Level at half-time37.4%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead53.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 833 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 10Actual: 11
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 5Actual: 8
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score2.05

Attack: Hamburger SV score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.33

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.2%2–110.9%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.