2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 24

1. FC Kaiserslautern–SSV Jahn Regensburg

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 March 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'1. FC KaiserslauternR. Ache (assist: F. Kleinhansl)
51'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Ritter (assist: M. Bauer)
70'1. FC KaiserslauternR. Ache (assist: D. Hanslik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		SSV Jahn Regensburg
18	Shots	17
11	Shots on target	5
12	Shots inside the box	14
5	Goalkeeper saves	8
7	Corners	7
1	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
402	Passes	327
314	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.31 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.80. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 18 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 17; on target 11 and 5.

Referee

R. Braun→

4.79

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.0%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 0.99 for SSV Jahn Regensburg.
The highest double chance value is 82.9% (1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern win or draw).
These values were computed from 821 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win60.0%

Draw22.9%

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win17.1%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time55.6%

Level at half-time34.9%

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time9.5%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level90.5%

12 — not level at half-time65.1%

X2 — level or SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead44.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 821 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 11
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 5Actual: 7
SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score2.31

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 29% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.31 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score0.80

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (43% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–111.0%2–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.