2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 23

Hamburger SV–1. FC Kaiserslautern

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 21 February 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

42'Hamburger SVDavie Selke (assist: W. Mikelbrencis)
65'Hamburger SVDavie Selke (assist: L. Reis)
78'Hamburger SVF. Balde (assist: M. Richter)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hamburger SV		1. FC Kaiserslautern
15	Shots	13
8	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
12	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
467	Passes	328
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hamburger SV 2.13 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.32. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Hamburger SV 15 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 13; on target 8 and 2.
Hamburger SV kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

S. Storks→

4.09

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “Hamburger SV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.07 for Hamburger SV, 1.20 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — Hamburger SV win or draw).
These values were computed from 810 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hamburger SV to win57.5%

Draw22.5%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win20.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hamburger SV lead at half-time43.9%

Level at half-time38.3%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Hamburger SV ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.7%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead56.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 810 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hamburger SV: at least 12Actual: 11
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Hamburger SV: at least 5Actual: 12
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hamburger SV score2.13

Attack: Hamburger SV score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.32

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hamburger SV's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%1–110.6%2–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.