2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 21

1. FC Köln–FC Schalke 04

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 February 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: RheinEnergieStadion, Köln

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'1. FC KölnD. Downs (assist: L. Maina)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Köln		FC Schalke 04
12	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
369	Passes	634
275	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Köln 2.06 · FC Schalke 04 1.24. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots 1. FC Köln 12 · FC Schalke 04 11; on target 3 and 2.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

T. Welz→

4.57

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.3%: “1. FC Köln to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for 1. FC Köln, 1.17 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 77.0% (1X — 1. FC Köln win or draw).
These values were computed from 798 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Köln to win52.3%

Draw24.7%

FC Schalke 04 to win23.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	6

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Köln lead at half-time57.9%

Level at half-time32.2%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time9.9%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Köln ahead or level90.1%

12 — not level at half-time67.8%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead42.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 798 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Köln: at least 10Actual: 14
FC Schalke 04: at least 9Actual: 6

Corners

1. FC Köln: at least 5Actual: 4
FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Köln score2.06

Attack: 1. FC Köln score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.24

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Köln concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.8%2–08.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.