2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

SC Paderborn 07–Hertha BSC

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 January 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Hertha BSCD. Scherhant (assist: D. Zeefuik)
69'Hertha BSCM. Cuisance (penalty)
90+4'SC Paderborn 07S. Michel (assist: I. Ansah)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Hertha BSC
21	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	4
5	Offsides	4
53%	Possession	47%
419	Passes	375
335	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 1.74 · Hertha BSC 1.46. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 21 · Hertha BSC 10; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

F. Heft→

5.96

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.41 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 771 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win44.0%

Draw25.4%

Hertha BSC to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time39.9%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 771 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 9Actual: 14
Hertha BSC: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 7
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.74

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.46

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–110.0%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.