2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

Preußen Münster–SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 January 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Preußen-Stadion, Münster

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Preußen MünsterJ. Mees (assist: J. ter Horst)
28'SpVgg Greuther FürthN. Gießelmann (assist: F. Klaus)
32'SpVgg Greuther FürthS. Asta · red card
90'Preußen MünsterJ. Mees (assist: M. Lorenz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		SpVgg Greuther Fürth
15	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
6	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
413	Passes	268
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.41 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Preußen Münster 15 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14; on target 4 and 3.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

N. Winter→

4.68

yellows per match

0.41

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.8%: “Preußen Münster to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Preußen Münster, 1.17 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 767 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win41.8%

Draw28.4%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win29.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Preußen Münster lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time39.5%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time19.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level80.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 767 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 12Actual: 16
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.41

Attack: Preußen Münster score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.26

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.26 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–09.9%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.