2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

SSV Jahn Regensburg–1. FC Magdeburg

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 November 2024 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regensburg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'1. FC MagdeburgM. El Hankouri

Match statistics

Match statistics
SSV Jahn Regensburg		1. FC Magdeburg
13	Shots	9
2	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
38%	Possession	62%
297	Passes	507
206	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.02 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.85. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots SSV Jahn Regensburg 13 · 1. FC Magdeburg 9; on target 2 and 3.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

F. Heft→

5.92

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.1%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 1.67 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (X2 — draw or 1. FC Magdeburg win).
These values were computed from 727 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SSV Jahn Regensburg to win25.8%

Draw26.1%

1. FC Magdeburg to win48.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SSV Jahn Regensburg lead at half-time20.2%

Level at half-time38.7%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time41.1%

First-half double chance

1X — SSV Jahn Regensburg ahead or level58.9%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead79.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 727 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 11Actual: 11
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

SSV Jahn Regensburg: at least 4Actual: 7
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SSV Jahn Regensburg score1.02

Attack: SSV Jahn Regensburg score below the league average (47% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.85

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SSV Jahn Regensburg concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–210.5%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.