2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 10

Karlsruher SC–Hertha BSC

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Hertha BSCI. Maza (assist: M. Cuisance)
45+3'Karlsruher SCB. Zivzivadze (assist: M. Wanitzek)
49'Hertha BSCD. Zeefuik (assist: M. Cuisance)
58'Hertha BSCF. Niederlechner (assist: J. Kenny)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Karlsruher SC		Hertha BSC
13	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
493	Passes	395
426	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Karlsruher SC 2.13 · Hertha BSC 1.35. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Karlsruher SC 13 · Hertha BSC 10; on target 2 and 8.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

F. Heft→

5.76

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “Karlsruher SC to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 31.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for Karlsruher SC, 1.55 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 75.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 695 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Karlsruher SC to win44.0%

Draw24.4%

Hertha BSC to win31.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

6	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time49.9%

Level at half-time33.0%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time17.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Karlsruher SC ahead or level82.9%

12 — not level at half-time67.0%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead50.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 695 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Karlsruher SC: at least 8Actual: 12
Hertha BSC: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Karlsruher SC: at least 6Actual: 7
Hertha BSC: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Karlsruher SC score2.13

Attack: Karlsruher SC score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.35

Attack: Hertha BSC score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.9%2–19.7%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.