2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 2

1. FC Nürnberg–FC Schalke 04

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 August 2024 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nürnberg

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'FC Schalke 04Ibrahima Cissé (assist: T. Mohr)
45+3'FC Schalke 04R. Schallenberg · red card
47'1. FC NürnbergL. Schleimer (assist: E. Valentini)
56'1. FC NürnbergC. Jander (assist: F. Pick)
66'1. FC NürnbergC. Jander · red card
76'1. FC Nürnberg

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		FC Schalke 04
8	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
2	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
396	Passes	399
306	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 · FC Schalke 04 1.75. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 8 · FC Schalke 04 15; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

N. Winter→

4.42

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 31.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.69 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 623 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win31.8%

Draw25.5%

FC Schalke 04 to win42.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time39.1%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 623 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 9Actual: 12
FC Schalke 04: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 1
FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.33

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.75

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–29.8%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 2 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.