Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 21

Kasımpaşa–Hatayspor

5–4

HT 2–3

Kick-off: Monday, 27 January 2025 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'HataysporF. Calvo · red card
15'HataysporBilal Boutobba (assist: V. Aboubakar)
20'HataysporCemali Sertel (assist: G. Sağlam)
30'KasımpaşaH. Hajradinovic (assist: Cláudio Winck)
39'KasımpaşaG. Kilama (own goal)
45+11'Hatayspor

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kasımpaşa		Hatayspor
31	Shots	10
10	Shots on target	8
19	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
11	Corners	5
2	Offsides	3
69%	Possession	31%
530	Passes	241
465	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kasımpaşa 1.88 · Hatayspor 1.08. On the pitch: 5-4.
Shots Kasımpaşa 31 · Hatayspor 10; on target 10 and 8.
Kasımpaşa kept the ball more (69%).

Unavailable players

Kasımpaşa

K. Omeruodoubtful · injury
Nuno da Costadoubtful · injury

Hatayspor

L. Diackout · yellow-card suspension

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:06.

Referee

M. Metoğlu→

5.47

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.7%: “Kasımpaşa to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Kasımpaşa, 1.16 for Hatayspor.
The highest double chance value is 78.6% (1X — Kasımpaşa win or draw).
These values were computed from 881 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kasımpaşa to win54.7%

Draw23.9%

Hatayspor to win21.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

V. Aboubakar (penalty)

53'KasımpaşaA. Kara

58'HataysporV. Aboubakar (assist: G. Sağlam)

69'KasımpaşaM. Fall (assist: Cláudio Winck)

76'KasımpaşaCláudio Winck (assist: M. Ouanes)

11	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kasımpaşa win or draw78.6%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Hatayspor win45.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 2–3

Kasımpaşa lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time42.7%

Hatayspor lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Kasımpaşa ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Hatayspor ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 880 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kasımpaşa: at least 10Actual: 11
Hatayspor: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Kasımpaşa: at least 5Actual: 11
Hatayspor: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals60.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kasımpaşa score1.88

Attack: Kasımpaşa score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hatayspor score1.08

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kasımpaşa concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.9%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 881 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 78 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.