Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 34

Paris FC–Ajaccio

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Charléty, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

47'Paris FCJ. Krasso (assist: A. Gory)
66'Paris FCJ. Krasso (assist: I. Kebbal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Ajaccio
19	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	3
2	Offsides	0
61%	Possession	39%
615	Passes	382
564	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.67 · Ajaccio 0.71. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Paris FC 19 · Ajaccio 10; on target 6 and 1.
Paris FC kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

R. Buquet→

3.87

yellows per match

0.45

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 70.9%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.25 for Paris FC, 0.80 for Ajaccio.
The highest double chance value is 89.6% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,056 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win70.9%

Draw18.7%

Ajaccio to win10.4%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Paris FC win or draw89.6%

12 — any result other than a draw81.3%

X2 — draw or Ajaccio win29.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (18.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Paris FC lead at half-time53.7%

Level at half-time38.5%

Ajaccio lead at half-time7.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level92.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Ajaccio ahead46.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1056 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 12Actual: 11
Ajaccio: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 3
Ajaccio: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.67

Attack: Paris FC score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Ajaccio's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajaccio score0.71

Attack: Ajaccio score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%2–110.6%1–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1056 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 71 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.