Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Martigues–Paris FC

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 2 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis Turcan, Martigues

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'Paris FCP. Hamel
59'MartiguesO. Orinel (assist: O. Mendy)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Martigues		Paris FC
12	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	7
9	Shots inside the box	13
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	1
0	Offsides	3
45%	Possession	55%
350	Passes	423
251	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Martigues 0.93 · Paris FC 1.67. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Martigues 12 · Paris FC 16; on target 4 and 7.
Paris FC kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. Petit→

3.40

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.7%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Martigues, 1.90 for Paris FC.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (X2 — draw or Paris FC win).
These values were computed from 1,047 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Martigues to win20.4%

Draw23.9%

Paris FC to win55.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Martigues win or draw44.3%

12 — any result other than a draw76.1%

X2 — draw or Paris FC win79.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.9%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Martigues lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time44.1%

Paris FC lead at half-time35.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Martigues ahead or level65.0%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Paris FC ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1047 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Martigues: at least 12Actual: 12
Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Martigues: at least 3Actual: 2
Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Martigues score0.93

Attack: Martigues score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paris FC score1.67

Attack: Paris FC score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Martigues concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%1–210.9%0–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1047 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.