Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 33

Ajaccio–Lorient

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 2 May 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Michel-Moretti, Ajaccio

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 18%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'AjaccioJ. Anziani (assist: T. Strata)
68'AjaccioB. Toure (assist: M. Barreto)
84'LorientP. Pagis (assist: M. Bamba)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ajaccio		Lorient
5	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	5
4	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
0	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
33%	Possession	67%
300	Passes	602
213	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ajaccio 0.74 · Lorient 1.54. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ajaccio 5 · Lorient 19; on target 3 and 5.
Lorient kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

O. Thual→

3.32

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.5%: “Lorient to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.89 for Ajaccio, 1.70 for Lorient.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (X2 — draw or Lorient win).
These values were computed from 1,047 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ajaccio to win18.0%

Draw25.4%

Lorient to win56.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ajaccio win or draw43.5%

12 — any result other than a draw74.6%

X2 — draw or Lorient win82.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ajaccio lead at half-time14.6%

Level at half-time42.6%

Lorient lead at half-time42.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Ajaccio ahead or level57.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Lorient ahead85.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1047 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ajaccio: at least 12Actual: 8
Lorient: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Ajaccio: at least 3
Lorient: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals48.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ajaccio score0.74

Attack: Ajaccio score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Lorient concede 35% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lorient score1.54

Attack: Lorient score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Ajaccio's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%0–112.0%0–211.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1047 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 32 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.