Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Annecy–Ajaccio

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 25 April 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Parc des Sports, Annecy

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

62'AnnecyK. Djoco (penalty)
74'AnnecyQ. Paris (assist: Vincent Pajot)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Annecy		Ajaccio
11	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	1
0	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
476	Passes	377
378	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Annecy 1.25 · Ajaccio 0.88. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Annecy 11 · Ajaccio 5; on target 4 and 1.
Annecy kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

P. Legat→

4.26

yellows per match

0.34

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.9%: “Annecy to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Annecy, 0.92 for Ajaccio.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (1X — Annecy win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,038 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Annecy to win44.9%

Draw30.2%

Ajaccio to win25.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Annecy lead at half-time44.0%

Level at half-time43.0%

Ajaccio lead at half-time12.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Annecy ahead or level87.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Ajaccio ahead56.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1038 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Annecy: at least 14Actual: 18
Ajaccio: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Annecy: at least 4Actual: 8
Ajaccio: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Annecy score1.25

Attack: Annecy score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ajaccio's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajaccio score0.88

Attack: Ajaccio score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Annecy's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%1–013.5%0–010.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.