Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 32

Guingamp–Martigues

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 25 April 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'GuingampB. Labeau (assist: L. Vallier)
47'GuingampR. Ghrieb (assist: H. Picard)
56'MartiguesO. Mendy (assist: S. Solvet)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Guingamp		Martigues
14	Shots	14
2	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	11
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	3
4	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
440	Passes	411
366	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Guingamp 2.22 · Martigues 0.66. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Guingamp 14 · Martigues 14; on target 2 and 6.

Referee

E. Rosier→

3.71

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.1%: “Guingamp to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.21 for Guingamp, 0.84 for Martigues.
The highest double chance value is 88.5% (1X — Guingamp win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,038 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Guingamp to win69.1%

Draw19.4%

Martigues to win11.5%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Guingamp win or draw88.5%

12 — any result other than a draw80.6%

X2 — draw or Martigues win30.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.4%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Guingamp lead at half-time34.9%

Level at half-time44.3%

Martigues lead at half-time20.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Guingamp ahead or level79.2%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Martigues ahead65.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1038 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Guingamp: at least 12Actual: 12
Martigues: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Guingamp: at least 5Actual: 6
Martigues: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Guingamp score2.22

Attack: Guingamp score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Martigues concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Martigues score0.66

Attack: Martigues score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Guingamp's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.8%2–110.7%1–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1038 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.