Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 31

Caen–Martigues

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 18 April 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 17%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

5'MartiguesS. Solvet (assist: A. Ipiélé)
17'MartiguesO. Mendy (assist: A. Ipiélé)
50'MartiguesM. Robin (assist: M. Siby)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Caen		Martigues
19	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	6
14	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
10	Corners	2
3	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
509	Passes	365
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Caen 1.84 · Martigues 0.80. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Caen 19 · Martigues 10; on target 3 and 6.
Caen kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

O. Thual→

3.33

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.2%: “Caen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.03 for Caen, 1.00 for Martigues.
The highest double chance value is 83.5% (1X — Caen win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,029 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Caen to win61.2%

Draw22.3%

Martigues to win16.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Caen win or draw83.5%

12 — any result other than a draw77.7%

X2 — draw or Martigues win38.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–2

Caen lead at half-time21.2%

Level at half-time47.2%

Martigues lead at half-time31.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Caen ahead or level68.3%

12 — not level at half-time52.8%

X2 — level or Martigues ahead78.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1029 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Caen: at least 12Actual: 13
Martigues: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Caen: at least 5Actual: 10
Martigues: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals59.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Caen score1.84

Attack: Caen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Martigues concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Martigues score0.80

Attack: Martigues score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Caen's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.80 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%2–111.0%2–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1029 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 30 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.