Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 30

Estac Troyes–Ajaccio

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 11 April 2025 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Estac Troyes		Ajaccio
12	Shots	6
5	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
64%	Possession	36%
567	Passes	320
501	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Estac Troyes 1.47 · Ajaccio 0.77. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Estac Troyes 12 · Ajaccio 6; on target 5 and 1.
Estac Troyes kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

E. Rosier→

3.75

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.2%: “Estac Troyes to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Estac Troyes, 0.77 for Ajaccio.
The highest double chance value is 81.0% (1X — Estac Troyes win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,020 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Estac Troyes to win52.2%

Draw28.8%

Ajaccio to win19.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Estac Troyes lead at half-time42.0%

Level at half-time44.0%

Ajaccio lead at half-time14.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Estac Troyes ahead or level86.0%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Ajaccio ahead58.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1020 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Estac Troyes: at least 12Actual: 12
Ajaccio: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Estac Troyes: at least 4Actual: 5
Ajaccio: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Estac Troyes score1.47

Attack: Estac Troyes score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ajaccio's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ajaccio score0.77

Attack: Ajaccio score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Estac Troyes's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–015.4%1–114.1%2–011.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.