Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 28

Paris FC–Caen

4–2

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Monday, 31 March 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Charléty, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Paris FCTimothée Kolodziejczak (assist: M. Lopez)
32'Paris FCJ. Krasso (assist: M. Cafaro)
44'Paris FCM. Cafaro (assist: T. De Smet)
60'Paris FCJ. Krasso (assist: M. Lopez)
82'CaenG. Kyeremeh
90+1'CaenM. Tourraine (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Caen
16	Shots	15
7	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	12
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
626	Passes	409
532	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.74 · Caen 0.78. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Paris FC 16 · Caen 15; on target 7 and 3.
Paris FC kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

E. Rosier→

3.73

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.4%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for Paris FC, 0.86 for Caen.
The highest double chance value is 87.1% (1X — Paris FC win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,010 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win66.4%

Draw20.8%

Caen to win12.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Paris FC lead at half-time46.6%

Level at half-time42.2%

Caen lead at half-time11.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level88.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Caen ahead53.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1010 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 13Actual: 12
Caen: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 2
Caen: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.74

Attack: Paris FC score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Caen's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Caen score0.78

Attack: Caen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paris FC's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.7%2–110.9%1–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.