Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 28

Bastia–Dunkerque

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 28 March 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Armand-Césari, Furiani

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'BastiaC. Vincent
70'BastiaMaxime Blé (assist: T. Ducrocq)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bastia		Dunkerque
14	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
273	Passes	496
188	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bastia 1.34 · Dunkerque 0.96. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bastia 14 · Dunkerque 11; on target 8 and 1.
Dunkerque kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

O. Thual→

3.28

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Bastia to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Bastia, 0.98 for Dunkerque.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (1X — Bastia win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,002 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bastia to win42.9%

Draw30.1%

Dunkerque to win27.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bastia lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time47.7%

Dunkerque lead at half-time26.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Bastia ahead or level73.1%

12 — not level at half-time52.3%

X2 — level or Dunkerque ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1002 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bastia: at least 12Actual: 13
Dunkerque: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Bastia: at least 4Actual: 3
Dunkerque: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bastia score1.34

Attack: Bastia score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dunkerque's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dunkerque score0.96

Attack: Dunkerque score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bastia concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.96 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–012.6%0–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.