Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 27

Martigues–PAU

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 14 March 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Francis Turcan, Martigues

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'MartiguesK. Tlili (assist: Y. Hadjem)
50'PAUK. Diawara (assist: P. Mboup)
54'PAUK. Boutaïb (penalty)
85'MartiguesK. Tlili

Match statistics

Match statistics
Martigues		PAU
10	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
4	Offsides	3
56%	Possession	44%
443	Passes	349
352	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Martigues 1.05 · PAU 1.55. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Martigues 10 · PAU 14; on target 4 and 7.
Martigues kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

A. Valnet→

3.51

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “PAU to win”. Second comes “Martigues to win” at 27.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Martigues, 1.50 for PAU.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 993 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Martigues to win27.8%

Draw27.6%

PAU to win44.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	19

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Martigues win or draw55.4%

12 — any result other than a draw72.4%

X2 — draw or PAU win72.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Martigues lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time47.4%

PAU lead at half-time25.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Martigues ahead or level75.0%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or PAU ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 993 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Martigues: at least 11Actual: 12
PAU: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Martigues: at least 4Actual: 4
PAU: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals49.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,604 of 3,461 predictions were correct (46.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 45.4%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Martigues score1.05

Attack: Martigues score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: PAU concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals PAU score1.55

Attack: PAU score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Martigues concede 37% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–210.0%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 993 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 26 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.