Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 27

Amiens–Caen

2–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 14 March 2025 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Amiens

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'AmiensA. Leautey (assist: L. Mafouta)
73'AmiensN. Kandil (assist: K. Kaiboue)
90+2'CaenK. Coulibaly (assist: A. Ba Loua)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Amiens		Caen
9	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	4
4	Offsides	1
46%	Possession	54%
345	Passes	399
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Amiens 1.29 · Caen 1.06. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Amiens 9 · Caen 11; on target 3 and 5.

Referee

M. Leleu→

3.13

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Caen to win”. Second comes “Amiens to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.11 for Amiens, 1.30 for Caen.
The highest double chance value is 70.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 993 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Amiens to win30.6%

Draw29.5%

Caen to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Amiens lead at half-time33.0%

Level at half-time45.5%

Caen lead at half-time21.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Amiens ahead or level78.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Caen ahead67.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 993 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Amiens: at least 12Actual: 13
Caen: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

Amiens: at least 4Actual: 2
Caen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Amiens score1.29

Attack: Amiens score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Caen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Caen score1.06

Attack: Caen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amiens's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–110.8%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.