Ligue 2 · France · Regular Season - 26

Paris FC–Lorient

3–2

HT 3–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Charléty, Paris

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Paris FCM. Cafaro (assist: N. Dicko)
25'LorientS. Soumano (penalty)
35'Paris FCJ. Krasso
38'Paris FCJ. Krasso
71'LorientE. J. Kroupi (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Paris FC		Lorient
11	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	7
1	Offsides	0
53%	Possession	47%
437	Passes	373
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Paris FC 1.15 · Lorient 1.16. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Paris FC 11 · Lorient 15; on target 5 and 7.

Referee

O. Thual→

3.23

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.1%: “Paris FC to win”. Second comes “Lorient to win” at 33.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for Paris FC, 1.12 for Lorient.
The highest double chance value is 69.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 990 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Paris FC to win36.1%

Draw30.5%

Lorient to win33.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–1

Paris FC lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time46.4%

Lorient lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Paris FC ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Lorient ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 990 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Paris FC: at least 11Actual: 17
Lorient: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Paris FC: at least 4Actual: 1
Lorient: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Paris FC score1.15

Attack: Paris FC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Lorient concede 29% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Lorient score1.16

Attack: Lorient score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Paris FC concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.16 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%1–011.0%0–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.